Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass has become one of the gaming industry’s most influential subscription services, but a new report suggests the company expected far more rapid growth than it ultimately achieved.
Xbox had internally projected that Game Pass would reach 77 million subscribers by 2026. Instead, the service is now estimated to have approximately 30 million subscribers, a gap that has fueled discussion following Microsoft’s sweeping gaming division restructuring.
Internal projections reportedly missed by a wide margin
The subscriber target came to light through legal documents made public during Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard. Those filings reportedly showed Xbox believed Game Pass would grow to around 77 million subscribers by 2026.
However, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Game Pass currently has roughly 30 million subscribers, less than half of the company’s earlier projection.
If accurate, the figure would also represent a decline from Microsoft’s last official update. In February 2024, Microsoft announced Game Pass had surpassed 34 million subscribers, but the company has not provided an updated official total since then.
Game Pass has undergone significant changes over the past year. Microsoft introduced pricing adjustments for several subscription tiers while restructuring the service’s offerings.
The company also revised its first-party release strategy. Future Xbox titles will no longer consistently launch on Game Pass for every subscriber on day one, with some releases, including Call of Duty, arriving later for certain membership tiers.
Industry analysts have suggested these changes, combined with higher subscription prices, may have influenced player retention. Although Microsoft later adjusted some pricing, the service has yet to show publicly confirmed subscriber growth.
Xbox faces broader restructuring
The Game Pass discussion comes during one of the biggest reorganizations in Xbox history. Microsoft recently announced thousands of layoffs across its gaming division while also making major changes to several first-party studios.
Despite the reported slowdown, Game Pass remains a central part of Microsoft’s gaming strategy. The subscription service still offers access to hundreds of titles across console, PC, and cloud gaming, and upcoming releases such as Call of Duty entries and other Xbox-published games are expected to remain key drivers for future growth.
Microsoft has not officially commented on the reported 30 million subscriber figure, leaving the long-term trajectory of Game Pass closely watched by both the industry and Xbox players.
