Netflix’s $3 Billion Ad Revenue Target Could Make Its Stock 9% Undervalued

Netflix’s growing advertising business is strengthening its long-term growth story, while Simply Wall St’s valuation model suggests the stock may have room to recover after a difficult year.

Thread

Netflix logo (Image via Netflix)

Netflix is drawing renewed investor attention as its advertising business continues to expand, with the company reporting strong advertiser demand during its 2026 Upfront.

Netflix secured nearly twice as many advertising commitments year over year and maintained its target of approximately $3 billion in advertising revenue for 2026.

The advertising push comes as Netflix’s stock has faced a difficult period. Simply Wall St reported that Netflix shares were trading at $74.79, with the stock down 17.8% year to date and its one-year total shareholder return down 39%. Despite that recent weakness, the company has delivered a 76.5% total shareholder return over three years.

Netflix’s Advertising Business Becomes a Bigger Growth Driver

Netflix’s advertising strategy has expanded considerably as the company looks beyond traditional subscription revenue. At its 2026 Upfront, Netflix said its ad-supported service had reached more than 250 million monthly active viewers globally, while more than 80% of members on the advertising plan watch Netflix every week.

The company is also expanding the technology supporting its advertising business. Netflix has introduced additional targeting and measurement capabilities through the Netflix Ads Suite, while expanding partnerships with major advertising platforms.

Netflix continues expanding its advertising business as the streaming company targets approximately $3 billion in ad revenue for 2026. (Image via Netflix)

Simply Wall St’s most-followed valuation narrative places Netflix’s estimated fair value at $82 per share, compared with the reported $74.79 share price. That represents an estimated 8.8% upside, although its separate discounted cash flow model puts the estimated value considerably higher at $98.35.

The valuation case rests partly on Netflix’s financial performance. Simply Wall St highlights revenue of approximately $48.4 billion, net income of $13.6 billion and a 28.2% net profit margin, alongside a 45.3% return on equity.

However, the analysis also identifies risks that could affect the investment case. Advertising revenue needs to continue scaling, while increased content spending could put pressure on margins and cash flow. The report also points to a recent $2.8 billion one-off gain and insider selling as factors investors should consider when assessing Netflix’s underlying financial performance.

With advertising becoming an increasingly important part of Netflix’s business model, the company’s ability to turn its growing advertiser demand into sustainable revenue and cash flow could be crucial to determining whether the stock’s recent weakness represents an opportunity or a warning sign.

Verified since 2024 Editorial Assistant

Britney Jones is a Bangalore-based Editorial Assistant at OtakuKart and a passionate writer with a keen interest in anime, gaming, and manga. She spends her free time gaming and graphic designing when she's not covering new manga launches and shōnen series announcements.

THREAD

Share your take. All comments are held for review before appearing.

Be the first to share your thoughts.