Supporters of Nikki Haley’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination are funneling funds into states hosting early March nominating contests. Regulatory filings and pro-Haley political operatives confirm this strategy.
The intensified efforts signal a recognition that Haley might not secure a surprise victory in her home state of South Carolina. This scenario is complicated by the enduring support for former President Donald Trump in the region.
Nikki Haley, the former governor, has extensively traversed South Carolina in anticipation of its Saturday primary. However, her efforts have struggled to diminish Trump’s substantial lead, which remains over 30 points in opinion polls.
Six analysts and supporters of Haley’s nomination now suggest that her most pivotal opportunity to regain momentum in the race will come during the initial five days of March.
This period coincides with “Super Tuesday,” when voters from 21 states and territories head to the polls, with the majority voting on March 5. Many of these states, such as Massachusetts and Virginia, boast significant populations of college-educated suburbanites who previously supported Haley in earlier nominating contests elsewhere.
“South Carolina is a really rough state. It’s a very Trump-friendly state,” said Robert Schwartz, the co-founder of Primary Pivot, an outside super PAC supporting Haley’s bid.
“Our hope is that Nikki Haley can make it respectable in South Carolina and move on to Super Tuesday.”
The gamble in early March highlights the commitment of certain donors to Nikki Haley’s campaign, despite her substantial losses in the first four nominating contests.
Approximately a dozen donors, fundraisers, and advisers expressed their belief that Trump’s pending criminal cases might compel him to withdraw, potentially paving the way for Haley as the heir apparent. Others are drawn to Haley’s candidacy simply because she represents an anti-Trump stance.
Primary Pivot, which has garnered approximately $1 million from donors ranging from big-dollar contributors to those contributing smaller amounts, is focusing its efforts on independent voters and Democrats who choose to participate in Republican primaries.
Schwartz, a spokesperson for the group, mentioned that they have been sending text messages endorsing Haley to voters in Maine, Massachusetts, Colorado, and Virginia – all states participating in Super Tuesday.
The organization has recently expanded its operations by hiring advisers in Michigan and Virginia, with plans to recruit staff in Massachusetts and Minnesota, Schwartz added.
Despite the potential challenge of winning over states likely to vote for Democratic President Joe Biden in the general election, Primary Pivot remains active.
However, victories in these states during the primaries might not significantly bolster Haley’s support among Republican voters nationwide.
Additionally, Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC supporting Haley and backed by conservative billionaire Charles Koch, has intensified its activities in March-voting states, as indicated by filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Following a relatively quiet period in February, the group resumed its activities by disclosing a $100,000 expenditure for campaign workers to conduct door-to-door conversations with voters in Tennessee and North Carolina.
Additionally, $75,000 was allocated for further door-knocking efforts in Virginia. Stand for America, another pro-Haley super PAC has directed its spending towards South Carolina. However, recent disclosures revealed a modest allocation of just over $2,000 for anti-Trump text messaging in Texas.
According to an individual familiar with the group’s activities, Stand for America is also considering expanding its presence into Super Tuesday states.
Strategies
Even staunch supporters of Nikki Haley acknowledge that her chances of orchestrating an upset victory in the Republican nomination race are exceedingly slim.
“I think it’s the only strategy she’s got,” Chip Felkel, a veteran South Carolina Republican operative, said of the decision to focus on March’s nominating contests. “She’ll lose South Carolina by a considerable margin.”
State-level polling consistently shows Nikki Haley trailing behind, with no polls indicating her leading in any state. The Trump campaign expresses confidence in securing the nomination by March 19, relying on a combination of public and proprietary polling data, according to a senior campaign official.
Senior Trump adviser Jason Miller recently shared poll results on X social media platform indicating Haley’s significant lag in eight Super Tuesday states.
With approximately half of all delegates, who ultimately determine the nominee at the party’s national convention in July, allocated by the end of Super Tuesday, Haley faces a critical juncture. Failing to perform credibly in early March could leave her dangerously close to mathematical elimination from the competition.
In late January, Nikki Haley acknowledged the need to outperform her performance in South Carolina compared to New Hampshire, where she lost to Trump by approximately 11 points. Since then, she has refrained from specifying concrete goals.
Haley has actively campaigned in California and Texas, both significant Super Tuesday states. Her campaign has also established leadership teams in at least five states—Alaska, Massachusetts, Idaho, Utah, and Washington—that hold primaries in early March.
Matthew Ingham, a 38-year-old truck driver attending a Haley event in Sumter, expressed the sentiment that winning in South Carolina might not be imperative for Haley.
However, he emphasized the necessity for a robust showing in subsequent contests, stating,
“She can’t keep coming in second.”
