The latest NBC News poll suggests that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is significantly affecting the electoral landscape, particularly by eroding former President Donald Trump’s support rather than President Joe Biden’s.
In a direct face-off, Trump leads Biden by a narrow margin of 2 percentage points, with 46% to 44%. When the ballot includes five named candidates, Biden edges ahead with a 2-point lead, Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3%, and Cornel West 2%, as reported by NBC News.
The poll reveals a notable trend: a larger portion of Trump voters are shifting their support to Kennedy in the expanded ballot.
Fifteen percent of respondents who initially chose Trump are now backing Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared to just 7% of those who initially favored Biden.
Surprisingly, Republican voters hold a more favorable view of Kennedy (40% positive, 15% negative) compared to Democratic voters (16% positive, 53% negative).
This dynamic suggests that Kennedy’s appeal resonates more with Trump supporters than with Biden’s, noted Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the survey alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
The poll’s findings challenge traditional political wisdom and diverge from other national surveys, which typically suggest that a larger third-party vote would harm Biden more.
McInturff acknowledged the uniqueness of the NBC News poll results and speculated whether they herald a broader trend or represent an outlier.
The emergence of Kennedy as a significant third-party candidate has the potential to disrupt the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, which was initially perceived as a rematch between Biden and Trump.
