Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service issued a stark warning, suggesting that Russia is gearing up for a military confrontation with the West in the next decade.
The assessment is based on Russia’s plans to double its military forces along the borders with NATO members Finland and the Baltic States. This potential escalation prompts calls for Europe to strengthen its armed forces as a deterrent.
While a direct military attack by Russia seems unlikely in the short term due to ongoing commitments in Ukraine, the risk increases without preparedness.
Estonia, along with other Baltic States, has responded by increasing military spending to over 2% of their economies. Additionally, NATO allies are bolstering their presence in the region, with Germany planning a significant troop deployment by 2027.
Kaupo Rosin, Estonia’s Chief of Intelligence, emphasized the importance of being prepared to counter potential Russian aggression. He noted that such readiness reduces the likelihood of a military conflict. However, Rosin cautioned against complacency, stressing the need for sustained vigilance.
Despite concerns about Ukraine’s stability, Rosin does not foresee a Russian breakthrough before Ukraine’s presidential election in March. Nevertheless, he highlighted Russia’s continued dominance in ammunition supply, posing a challenge to Ukraine’s ability to change the situation on the battlefield.
In light of these developments, Rosin urged for ongoing Western support to prevent further escalation in the region and maintain stability. The report also underscored the significance of strategic cooperation among NATO members to effectively deter any potential aggression from Russia.
